Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data

Vincent Guidard 1, * Diane Tzanos 1
* Auteur correspondant
Abstract : The Cloud Type product, developed by the Satellite Application Facility on support to nowcasting and very short range forecasting (SAFNWC) of EUMETSAT and based on Meteosat-8/SEVIRI, identifies cloud categories, and especially low and very low clouds which are first estimates of areas where fog is likely to occur. This cloud type is combined with precipitation information from radar data and with hourly diagnostic analyses of 2-metre relative humidity and 10-metre wind to elaborate an hourly analysis of fog probability. This analysis provides four levels of fog probability with a 3-kilometre horizontal resolution: no risk, low-level risk, medium-level risk and high-level risk. An evaluation of such fog probability analyses versus a one-year set of French hourly SYNOP reports shows encouraging results (potential of detection = 0.73 for low and medium and high-level risks), even if false alarm ratios remain high. Most of the non-detections occur at twilight and are due satellite non-detections. Eventually, we show case studies that clearly illustrate the high potential of the method.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Pure and Applied Geophysics, Springer Verlag, 2007, 164, pp.1207-1220. 〈10.1007/s00024-007-0215-6〉
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https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00285015
Contributeur : Vincent Guidard <>
Soumis le : mercredi 4 juin 2008 - 11:54:00
Dernière modification le : mercredi 4 juin 2008 - 11:54:00

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Vincent Guidard, Diane Tzanos. Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data. Pure and Applied Geophysics, Springer Verlag, 2007, 164, pp.1207-1220. 〈10.1007/s00024-007-0215-6〉. 〈meteo-00285015〉

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