On the Impact of Short-Range Meteorological Forecasts for Ensemble Streamflow Predictions

Guillaume Thirel (1) , Fabienne Rousset-Regimbeau (2) , Eric Martin (1) , Florence Habets (3)

1 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
2 Météo-France
3 GEOSCIENCES - Centre de Géosciences

Ensemble streamflow prediction systems are emerging in the international scientific community in order to better assess hydrologic threats. Two ensemble streamflow prediction systems (ESPSs) were set up at Météo-France using ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System for the first one, and from the Prévision d'Ensemble Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (PEARP) ensemble prediction system of Météo-France for the second. This paper presents the evaluation of their capacities to better anticipate severe hydrological events and more generally to estimate the quality of both ESPSs on their globality. The two ensemble predictions were used as input for the same hydrometeorological model. The skills of both ensemble streamflow prediction systems were evaluated over all of France for the precipitation input and streamflow prediction during a 569-day period and for a 2-day short-range scale. The ensemble streamflow prediction system based on the PEARP data was the best for floods and small basins, and the ensemble streamflow prediction system based on the ECMWF data seemed the best adapted for low flows and large basins.

Mots clés: Prévision probabiliste; Flux de rivière; Prévision météorologique; Modèle déterministe; Prévision d'ensemble; Précipitations; Méthodes statistiques; Désagrégation; Modèle hydrométéorologique

Domaines: Météorologie; Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]

Guillaume Thirel, Fabienne Rousset-Regimbeau, Eric Martin, Florence Habets. On the Impact of Short-Range Meteorological Forecasts for Ensemble Streamflow Predictions. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2008, 9 (6), pp.1301-1317. ⟨10.1175/2008JHM959.1⟩. ⟨meteo-00357251⟩