Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Geoscientific Model Development Year : 2022

Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (1) , , , , , ,
1
Peter Hitchcock
Amy Butler
  • Function : Author
Andrew Charlton-Perez
  • Function : Author
Chaim Garfinkel
  • Function : Author
Tim Stockdale
  • Function : Author
James Anstey
  • Function : Author
Dann Mitchell
  • Function : Author
Daniela Domeisen
  • Function : Author
Tongwen Wu
Yixiong Lu
  • Function : Author
Daniele Mastrangelo
  • Function : Author
Piero Malguzzi
  • Function : Author
Hai Lin
Ryan Muncaster
  • Function : Author
Bill Merryfield
  • Function : Author
Michael Sigmond
  • Function : Author
Baoqiang Xiang
  • Function : Author
Liwei Jia
  • Function : Author
Yu-Kyung Hyun
  • Function : Author
Jiyoung Oh
  • Function : Author
Isla Simpson
  • Function : Author
Jadwiga Richter
  • Function : Author
Cory Barton
  • Function : Author
Jeff Knight
  • Function : Author
Eun-Pa Lim
  • Function : Author
Harry Hendon
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
gmd-15-5073-2022.pdf (8.39 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Dates and versions

meteo-03712677 , version 1 (07-07-2022)

Licence

Attribution - CC BY 4.0

Identifiers

Cite

Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, et al.. Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts. Geoscientific Model Development, 2022, 15 (13), pp.5073-5092. ⟨10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022⟩. ⟨meteo-03712677⟩
28 View
5 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More