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Macroinvertebrate distribution associated with environmental variables in alpine streams

Abstract : Abstract Glaciers and ice caps are experiencing strong mass losses worldwide, challenging water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystems. Here, we perform the first-ever glacier evolution projections based on deep learning by modelling the 21st century glacier evolution in the French Alps. By the end of the century, we predict a glacier volume loss between 75 and 88%. Deep learning captures a nonlinear response of glaciers to air temperature and precipitation, improving the representation of extreme mass balance rates compared to linear statistical and temperature-index models. Our results confirm an over-sensitivity of temperature-index models, often used by large-scale studies, to future warming. We argue that such models can be suitable for steep mountain glaciers. However, glacier projections under low-emission scenarios and the behaviour of flatter glaciers and ice caps are likely to be biased by mass balance models with linear sensitivities, introducing long-term biases in sea-level rise and water resources projections.
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https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-03841462
Contributor : Isabelle Gouttevin Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, November 7, 2022 - 10:26:14 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, November 8, 2022 - 3:21:42 AM

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Juliette Becquet, Nicolas Lamouroux, Thomas Condom, Isabelle Gouttevin, Maxence Forcellini, et al.. Macroinvertebrate distribution associated with environmental variables in alpine streams. Freshwater Biology, 2022, 67 (10), pp.1815-1831. ⟨10.1111/fwb.13977⟩. ⟨meteo-03841462⟩

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