An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

M. Shapiro (1, 2) , J. Shukla (3, 4) , G. Brunet (5) , C. Nobre (6) , M. Béland (5) , R. Dole (7) , K. Trenberth (1) , R. Anthes (8) , G. Asrar (9) , L. Barrie (10) , P. Bougeault (11) , G. Brasseur (12) , D. Burridge (13) , A. Busalacchi (14) , J. Caughey (13) , D. Chen (15, 16) , J. Church (17) , T. Enomoto (18) , B. Hoskins (19, 20) , Ø. Hov (21) , A. Laing (1) , Hervé Le Treut (22) , J. Marotzke (23) , G. Mcbean (24) , G. Meehl (1) , M. Miller (25) , B. Mills (26) , J. Mitchell (27) , M. Moncrieff (1) , T. Nakazawa (28) , H. Olafsson (29, 30) , T. Palmer (25, 31) , D. Parsons (32) , D. Rogers (33) , A. Simmons (25) , A. Troccoli (34) , Z. Toth (7) , L. Uccellini (35) , C. Velden (36) , J.M. Wallace (37)

1 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
2 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
3 George Mason University [Fairfax]
4 Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, MD, United States
5 Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate [Montreal]
6 Center for Earth System Science [São José dos Campos]
7 ESRL - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
8 UCAR - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
9 WCRP - World Climate Research Programme
10 Atmospheric Research and Environment Branch of the WMO
11 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
12 Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany
13 THORPEX, World Weather Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
14 ESSIC - Earth Science System Interdisciplinary Center [College Park]
15 Department of Earth Sciences [Gothenburg]
16 ISI - International Science Council
17 CAWCR - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
18 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
19 Department of Meteorology [Reading]
20 Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment
21 MET - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo]
22 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
23 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
24 UWO - University of Western Ontario
25 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
26 Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Waterloo, ON, Canada
27 United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter]
28 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
29 University of Iceland [Reykjavik]
30 UiB - University of Bergen
31 University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
32 World Weather Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
33 Health and Climate Foundation, Washington, DC, United States
34 ESSC - Environmental Systems Science Centre [Reading]
35 EMC - NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
36 CIMSS - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
37 University of Washington [Seattle]

Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

Domaines: Climatologie; Météorologie

M. Shapiro, J. Shukla, G. Brunet, C. Nobre, M. Béland, et al.. An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2010, 91 (10), pp.1377-1388. ⟨10.1175/2010BAMS2944.1⟩. ⟨hal-01136714⟩