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Contribution des aérosols aux scénarios climatiques en Méditerranée pour le XXIème siècle à l'échelle régionale

Abstract : The Euro-Mediterranean region is subject to high aerosol loads of various origins and with high spatial and temporal variability. The climate of this region will be impacted by their direct effect on radiation but also by their semi-direct and indirect effects on clouds and atmospheric dynamics. This thesis work, which is part of the Med-CORDEX and ChArMEx research programmes, will address through regional climate modelling the question of the direct radiative effect of the various aerosols over the historical period, their evolution between the period 1971-2000 and the period 2021-2050 as well as the sensitivity of the future climate of this region to these aerosols. In order to take into account as fully as possible anthropogenic aerosols in the ALADIN-Climat regional climate model, used throughout this thesis work, a new simplified aerosol module to represent nitrate and ammonium particles has been implemented in its interactive aerosol scheme TACTIC. A set of simulations, taking into account or not nitrate and ammonium particles, were carried out over the period 1979-2016. The results showed the significant impact of these atmospheric particles on the Euro-Mediterranean climate with a contribution of 40% to the total AOD (at 550 nm) and a direct radiative forcing higher than that of sulphate and organic carbon particles from 2005. Over a longer period of time and using different scenarios, results show a decrease of total AOD of 35% over Europe between 1971-2000 and 2021-2050. This is mainly due to the decrease of the sulphate aerosols AOD, partly offset by the increase of nitrates. Nitrate particles will also have the highest total AOD contribution over Europe, of 45%, during the future period. This evolution of the various aerosols will impact their direct radiative forcing, with a significant decrease in that exerted by sulphate particles and an increase in that of nitrate and ammonium aerosols. These changes, which are robust under the different scenarios, explain on an annual average about 6% of the expected global warming over Europe between the two periods, mainly due to aerosols-radiation interactions but also to a change in cloud albedo (first indirect effect) and atmospheric dynamics over this region.
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Thomas Drugé. Contribution des aérosols aux scénarios climatiques en Méditerranée pour le XXIème siècle à l'échelle régionale. Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]. Université Toulouse 3 - Paul Sabatier, 2019. Français. ⟨tel-02475651v2⟩

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